Summary
- Rystad Energy expects Iberia’s share of European data centre capacity to increase from 5.8% in 2025 to 11.5% in 2030.
- Utilities and developers are combining several generation sources with battery storage rather than relying on solar alone.
- Grid connections, high temperatures and water availability remain constraints on how quickly planned capacity can operate.
Data centre growth in Spain and Portugal is pushing developers and utilities towards combinations of wind, hydro and battery storage as large continuous loads increase pressure on electricity systems built around variable renewable generation.
Rystad Energy expects the Iberian Peninsula’s share of European data centre capacity to rise from 5.8% in 2025 to 11.5% by 2030, according to analysis reported by Reuters. Spain is projected to reach around 3.9GW and Portugal about 1GW.
The forecasts describe expected market capacity rather than infrastructure already operating. Large parts of the Iberian development pipeline remain proposed, under construction or awaiting the grid capacity required for energisation.
The expected growth is nevertheless changing power procurement. Utilities including Iberdrola, Endesa and EDP are adding combinations of renewable generation and storage, while developers including Solaria and Merlin Properties are working with hybrid power arrangements.
Continuous compute needs power outside solar hours
A data centre draws electricity throughout the day, while solar output rises and falls with daylight and weather. Purchasing enough solar generation to match annual consumption does not ensure that the same electricity is available during the night or during periods of low production.
Wind can produce at different times from solar, while hydro can provide more controllable output where water availability and operating rules permit it. Batteries can move energy between hours and respond quickly to shorter differences between generation and demand.
Endesa is pursuing a 1.9GW renewable build programme associated with growing demand, while battery storage is becoming a larger part of power strategies around digital infrastructure. Portugal’s large Sines development also illustrates the way renewable procurement is being built into the commercial model of very large campuses.
Storage cannot remove every network constraint. A grid-connected battery still needs enough capacity to charge, while a battery paired directly with renewable generation needs sufficient generation and duration to support the desired discharge profile.
Transmission and distribution capacity can therefore remain the controlling constraint even where a region has abundant renewable resources. Electricity generated elsewhere cannot supply a data centre if the network between generation and load lacks the capacity to carry it.
Cooling introduces a second physical limit. Spain and Portugal offer large renewable resources, but high summer temperatures increase the work required to reject heat from servers. Cooling systems must perform during the periods when ambient conditions are least favourable and other electricity demand may also be high.
Water availability can narrow the choice of cooling technology further. Evaporative systems can reduce some electrical cooling demand but consume water, while dry or air cooled approaches reduce water dependence at the cost of different energy and equipment requirements.
The combination of generation, networks, storage and cooling determines how much announced capacity becomes usable. A project can have a renewable power purchase agreement and still be delayed by its grid connection or constrained by the thermal design required for the site.
Iberia’s growing share of the European market is therefore creating an infrastructure programme beyond the construction of data halls. Utilities and developers have to build power portfolios capable of serving continuous loads while grid operators decide where new demand can connect without compromising the wider electricity system.
The planned expansion will only become operating data centre capacity as those physical systems arrive together. Renewable generation provides a favourable starting point, but it cannot substitute for the transmission, storage and cooling infrastructure required at each site.
