Summary
- Statkraft's four scenarios project data centres accounting for 6–9% of total EU electricity demand by 2050.
- Norwegian electricity generation is projected at 176–253TWh annually in 2050, depending largely on future wind power development.
- The scenarios identify grid access, computing efficiency, AI adoption and local acceptance as factors influencing the growth and location of data centres.
Norwegian energy company Statkraft projects that data centres could account for 6–9% of total European Union electricity demand by 2050, as growing computing requirements add to the electrical load created by industrial electrification, transport and heating.
The figures appear in Statkraft’s Green Transition Scenarios 2026 report, published on 13 October. The assessment examines four possible energy system pathways through 2050, reflecting different assumptions about geopolitics, technology adoption, investment and infrastructure development.
The company identifies artificial intelligence as a potential driver of additional electricity consumption but emphasises that the scale of future demand remains uncertain.
More efficient processors and software could moderate electricity requirements, while access to electrical networks and local acceptance of new facilities may constrain the pace of deployment.
The projected 6–9% share does not describe electricity presently consumed by EU data centres. Nor does it establish the amount of computing capacity already connected, under construction or secured through binding electricity agreements.
Rather, Statkraft’s scenarios examine how data centre requirements might evolve as part of a wider energy system undergoing substantial structural change.
Electricity demand grows across four scenarios
The report considers four pathways: Green, Gridlock, Uneven Progress and Unrest.
The Green scenario describes faster international cooperation, technology deployment and integration of energy systems. Gridlock assumes continued renewable growth but greater constraints from permitting and infrastructure development.
Uneven Progress examines a fragmented transition in which regions and technologies advance at different rates, while Unrest describes greater political and economic disruption.
Despite the differences, the scenarios all involve an increased role for electricity in the global economy. Statkraft projects worldwide electricity consumption growing by roughly half to more than doubling by 2050, depending on the pathway.
Its detailed scenario overview places that range at approximately 48% to more than 100%. The accompanying announcement rounds the lower end to 50%.
Renewables are projected to become the dominant source of global electricity generation by 2035, although the rate of expansion varies between scenarios.
Statkraft’s modelling also suggests renewable electricity could account for 62–80% of global generation in 2050. Those are global projections, separate from the European Union’s historical electricity generation mix.
The electricity transition is not simply an increase in power consumption without any change in other energy use. Electric vehicles and heat pumps can provide transport and heating services using less final energy than many fossil-fuel alternatives.
Statkraft’s analysis therefore anticipates significant growth in electricity demand alongside slower growth in total energy consumption.
Data centres differ from transport and heating because their demand depends strongly on the amount of computing performed and the efficiency of the infrastructure supporting it.
Processor performance, workload utilisation and facility efficiency can influence energy consumption, but improvements in those measures do not establish that the sector’s aggregate electricity use will decline as additional computing equipment is deployed.
European generation and network constraints
Statkraft reports that renewable sources accounted for 48% of EU electricity generation in 2025, compared with 38% in 2021.
The same assessment indicates that the European Union continues to import approximately 57% of the energy it consumes. That figure covers the wider energy system and should not be interpreted as the percentage of electricity imported by the EU.
Increasing domestic renewable generation could reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels, but additional electricity production must be supported by suitable transmission, distribution and balancing infrastructure.
Data centre developers require electrical connections capable of supplying substantial loads at particular locations. Network capacity may therefore remain constrained even when renewable generation is expanding elsewhere in the country.
Large new loads can also require additional substations, transformers, transmission works and distribution equipment before their proposed computing capacity can enter operation.
Statkraft identifies the availability of new generation and grid infrastructure as important determinants of where data centres can be built. In some markets, electricity network connection times may influence development decisions as much as access to suitable land.
Storage and flexible electricity demand can help manage network conditions, but the degree of flexibility available from computing workloads depends on their operational requirements.
Facilities supporting continuously available services may be less able to reduce demand at short notice than industrial processes with greater discretion over operating schedules.
DataCentral recently reported on the introduction of flexibility auctions by Dutch electricity network operators. Such arrangements seek to manage constrained infrastructure, but they do not automatically establish permanent connections for large new consumers.
Norway faces pressure on its power surplus
The Nordic countries have attracted data centre development partly because of their electricity generation resources and the availability of comparatively cool climatic conditions.
Statkraft’s scenarios nevertheless indicate that Norway’s historical electricity surplus could narrow as demand increases across industry, transport and digital infrastructure.
The company describes Norway’s electricity system as approximately 98% renewable. However, it warns that development of new generation is progressing slowly relative to the potential growth in consumption.
Annual Norwegian electricity generation is projected to reach between 176TWh and 253TWh in 2050, with much of the variation depending on the development of wind power.
Hydropower remains the dominant source in all four pathways, accounting for approximately 60–80% of Norwegian electricity generation by 2050.
These are national generation scenarios rather than allocations of electricity to individual data centre projects. The availability of power at a proposed site depends on the actual network connection and local operating conditions.
Internal transmission reinforcement and interconnectors are important components of the scenarios because they influence where electricity can be delivered and how power systems respond to changing generation and demand.
Statkraft also identifies the potential contribution of onshore wind, supported by flexible hydropower, in supplying competitive electricity to Norwegian industry.
The report does not establish that all the electricity generation projects required under its more expansive scenarios have received permits or final investment decisions.
Similarly, it does not provide a complete schedule of future data centre developments corresponding to the projected 6–9% share of European electricity demand.
DataCentral has previously examined the limits facing large AI campus proposals in Iceland, where renewable electricity availability must also be considered alongside network capacity and national priorities.
Statkraft’s new analysis extends that infrastructure question across Europe. The eventual location and scale of additional computing capacity will depend on whether electricity generation, network reinforcement and the projects seeking those connections advance together.
The four scenarios establish a range of possible energy system outcomes rather than a single committed development programme. Actual commissioning records, electricity connections and measured consumption will be needed to determine how closely the sector follows those projections.
